Investigation of hydropower energy potential and policy shift from natural gas to hydropower energy in Turkey

Abstract

This study investigates the possible hydropower potential of Turkey, using literature and the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works plans. Based on the obtained hydraulic potential, two scenarios are proposed. The first scenario is an electricity investment and share of electricity production continuing as a historical trend, while the second scenario is the increase in the share of hydropower plants in total electricity production as 35%, including a newly calculated potential of 156 TWh. The results show that the hydropower potential of Turkey increased from 140 to 156 TWh with a level of 12%. Scenario I shows that the total share of electricity production from hydropower changed from 25% to 26% but natural gas did not change. Scenario II shows that natural gas power production will decrease from 42% to 30% and hydropower production increase from 26% to 35% in 2023. The results also show that if Scenario II is applied, the cumulative present value of gain will be approximately 32% in 2043 with a savings of about $25 billion.