Modeling and forecasting car ownership based on socio-economic and demographic indicators in Turkey

Abstract

Since car ownership is an important determinant to analyze car travel behavior especially in developing countries, this paper deals with modeling and forecasting car ownership in Turkey based on socio-economic and demographic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, Gasoline Price (GP), car price and number of employees by using multiple nonlinear regression analysis. Although most of the studies on this subject prefer using annual data, we use monthly data for the analysis of car ownership since all explanatory variables and exchange rates used for the modeling are unstable and vary even in a short period in developing countries such as Turkey. Thus, it may be possible to reflect the effects of socio-economic and demographic indicators on car ownership more properly. During the modeling process, exponential and polynomial nonlinear regression models are set up and then tested to investigate their applicability for car ownership forecasting. Based on results of the Kolmogorov-Smimov test, the polynomial models has been selected to forecast car ownership for the year 2035. In order to reveal the possible different trends of the independent variables in future, car ownership is forecasted along the scenarios which are related to the GDP per capita and GP. Results show that Turkey's car ownership may vary between 230 and 325 per thousand capita in 2035 depending on economic achievements, global oil prices and national taxation policies. The lowest and the highest values of the car ownership may provide insight to car producers and transport planners in Turkey. Another significant result presented in this study is that car ownership rate will be substantially lower in Turkey than that in the European Union countries despite it has an increasing trend in the past two decades.