Segmented pipeline damage predictions using liquefaction vulnerability parameters

Abstract

Past observations showed that pipeline damages in liquefaction zones are significantly higher than the damages in areas where there was no liquefaction. Existing vulnerability relationships for the pipelines in liquefaction zones utilize parameters such as ground displacement, horizontal ground strain, angular distortion or both. These relationships are particularly useful in performance or risk assessment of pipeline systems. However, prediction of these parameters for pipeline damage estimates is difficult to perform and highly variable with current procedures. This paper proposes new correlations of asbestos cement (AC), cast iron (CI) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipeline damage, expressed as repairs/km, with three different liquefaction parameters: liquefaction severity number (LSN), one-dimensional volumetric reconsolidation settlement (SV1D), and liquefaction potential index (LPI). The pipeline damage data from 22 February 2011, Mw = 6.2 Christchurch earthquake and geotechnical information pertaining to liquefied area in Christchurch are utilized herein. Cone penetration test (CPT) based Boulanger and Idriss [1] liquefaction triggering procedure with 15th, 50th and 85th percentile cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) curves (corresponding to probabilities of liquefaction, PL, equal to 15%, 50%, and 85%) was used to calculate the parameters. It is shown that the relationships between AC, CI and PVC pipeline damages and LSN, SV1D and LPI are strong, except for the correlation for AC pipeline damage versus LPI. Considering CI and PVC pipelines, both LSN and LPI correlations are comparable and slightly better than SV1D correlations. Use of different probabilities of liquefaction triggering does not have significant effect on correlations with LSN and SV1D whereas the same is not true for LPI correlations. Regarding the resilience of pipelines, PVC and AC pipelines performed the best and worst, respectively in all cases with CI pipelines in the middle. The correlations have the potential for use with existing or new liquefaction hazard maps for prediction of pipeline damage from future earthquakes. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd