The Empirical Analysis of Triplet Deficit in Turkey (1984-2010)

Abstract

The fact that current account deficits lead to crisis in countries is the reason that determinants of current account deficit are examined. The presence of current account deficit along with the budget deficit is accepted as the "twin deficits hypothesis" in the literature. In the presence of domestic savings-investment deficit, the analysis of twin deficits is named as "triplet deficits". In the analysis of triplet deficits, the relations among current account deficit, budget deficit and savings-investment deficit are focused. Despite the variety of studies on twin deficits, the number of studies on triplet deficits is rather limited. This study aims to test the presence of triplet deficits in Turkey between 1984 and 2010 through VAR method. The findings indicate that there is a relation between the current account deficit and savings-investment deficit and the triplet deficits hypothesis is not valid for Turkey.