Convergence of Crime in Turkey: Time Series Analysis with Accounting Structural Breaks

Abstract

This study examines the potential convergence in crime rates among 12 regions in Turkey forevaluating whether crime fighting socio-economic policies should be constructed at a national orregional level. Turkey’s aggregated crime data indicate that total crime per 100000 inhabitantsincreased approximately by 190% during 1990-2016. Moreover, this topic is noteworthy for Turkeyin the presence of variations of crime across regions and number of convicted prisoners due toremission of punishment or financial crisis. We employed different techniques to capture the role ofstructural shifts. The results of conventional unit root tests provide very few evidence forconvergence. This contradicts starkly with two sharp shifts results. Finally, gradual shift testing doesnot show clear-cut evidence for divergence. However, ?-convergence testing supports strong evidencein favor of divergence. These indicate that consideration of structural breaks are critical in terms ofpolicy implications and regional socio-economic policies should be implemented.