ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURKEY AND OECD COUNTRIES: THE SPATIAL PANEL GRAVITY MODELS APPROACH

Abstract

The gravity model is a widely used method to explain the trade between countries. In this study, trade relationships between OECD countries and Turkey were examined by using the spatial gravity model. The analysis was carried out for the period 1993-2017. Spatial gravity model was examined separately on Turkey's import, export and trade volume (imports + exports) with OECD countries for international trade to be considered in all aspects. As the independent variables; gross domestic product (GPD), population (POP), the exchange rate (EXCH), distance (DIST) and the situation of countries being in the same coastal seas (SEA) variables are used. In this study, the spatial effect in international trade has been taken into consideration by using spatial econometrics methods in the context of panel data. According to the spatial dependence test results applied for panel data, it was decided that there is a spatial effect on Turkey's imports and trade volumes with OECD countries. It has been observed that considering spatial dependency in the gravity model has a significant effect on the results. This situation arising from the methodological difference is important in terms of explaining trade relations more properly.