Non-linear ARDL approach to the oil-stock nexus: Detailed sectoral analysis of the Turkish stock market

Abstract

This study explores the dynamic and asymmetric impacts of oil price changes on the Turkish sectoral stock index. We used the Nonlinear ARDL approach to investigate both the short and long-run asymmetries on the oil-stock nexus by using the post-global crisis daily data between January 2009 and May 2019. Our findings show that oil prices have a negative impact on the Turkish stock market in the short term, and this negative impact varies greatly across sectors. The results show that non-linearities are important and dynamic multipliers prove that asymmetries matter in the oil-stock nexus. The results also show that the short-run impacts are more pronounced than the long-run impacts, and negative oil price movements have more impact than the positive ones in the short run. Finally, in the case of short-term asymmetry, dynamic multipliers show that changes in oil prices lead to a bear market in Turkish stocks, regardless of the direction of the change in oil prices.