Estimating energy demand of Turkey based on economic indicators using genetic algorithm approach

Abstract

This study deals with estimation of energy demand based on economic indicators in Turkey. The genetic algorithm energy demand (GAEDM) Model is developed based on past data using the genetic algorithm approach. The economic indicators that are used during the model development are: gross national product (GNP), population and import and export figures of Turkey. Two forms of the GAEDM model are developed to estimate energy demand. The GAEDM can be used for estimating the energy demand in the future by optimizing the parameter value using available data. The future energy demand is calculated under different scenarios. The current models overestimate the energy demand in the years 2020 and 2025. The relative estimation errors of the GAEDM model are the lowest when they are compared with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) projection. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.