Forecasting Waste Mobile Phone (WMP) Quantity and Evaluating the Potential Contribution to the Circular Economy: A Case Study of Turkey

Abstract

Information and communication technology (ICT)-based products have a significant effect on increasing levels of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) or electronic waste (e-waste) due to their shorter lifespan as a result of rapid technological changes. Mobile phones are the most popular ICT products, and their market share is increasing gradually. Therefore, effective management of waste mobile phones (WMP) is sought as their recovery brings enormous economic and regulatory benefits. Forecasting the quantities of WMP and their recoverable material content generates valuable data for the related stakeholders in the circular economy (CE) in the design and management of their supply chain networks. This paper presents an approach to determining the WMP quantity for Turkey considering the system from sales to end-of-life (EOL) stages and the years between 2001 and 2035. The proposed model includes two main parts: estimation and forecasting. Firstly, the generated WMP quantity is estimated based on dynamic lifespan and sales using the Distribution Delay (DD) Method considering the years from 2001 to 2020. To select the most suitable model for future projection, seven different time series methods (e.g., Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt's, Logistics, Gompertz, Logarithmic, Bass, and ARIMA models) are considered to estimate the generated WMP. For the given data, the Holt's Method is determined to be the best method to forecast the WMP quantities for the years from 2021 to 2035. In addition, waste materials amount and revenue potentials are estimated for the years from 2001 to 2035. The WMP for Turkey is expected to be approximately 11.5 million units and has a 52 million US$ revenue potential in 2035. The present study contributes to the literature, as it is the first holistic forecasting study on the quantification of WMPs in Turkey. Moreover, since WMPs include remarkable recovery potential in terms of CE, the data and findings of this study may help policymakers, governments, producers, consumers, and all stakeholders to establish effective e-waste management approaches.