The effect of macro-economic indicators on voter behavior in Turkey: An analysis on general and local elections of 1980-2019

Abstract

The main actor of voter behavior is the human and human behavior under the identity of voter. For this reason, voter behavior emerges as a product of a complex process as it can be influenced by different factors. In this respect, voter behavior, which constitutes the most measurable behavior type of political participation, requires a multidimensional approach. This study aims to determine the sensitivity of political party vote rates to changes in macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, growth and unemployment rates in general and local elections held in Turkey between 1980-2019. The sensitivity of voters to economic indicators is analyzed within the framework of the economic approach and the responsibility hypothesis. In this study, econometric analyses were conducted with the help of Eviews 10 program and necessary tests were applied. In the study, the existence of correlation relationship between variables is revealed by horizontal cross-section dependence test. The results of the horizontal cross-section dependence test show that voters who vote in general and local elections are sensitive to variables such as unemployment, inflation and economic growth.