An entropy (Shannon) based traffic safety level determination approach for black spots

Abstract

Black Spots are one of the crucial subjects in traffic safety. Determination of black spots and their safety levels would be useful for prevention of future traffic accidents. But it is not an easy task. Many parameters have considerable effects on the phenomenon. On the other hand, safety level determination has uncertainty. Therefore deterministic approaches are incapable in classification. This study deals with determination of black spots' safety levels using Shannon Entropy Approach considering accident types and effective factors on accident occurrence. Geometrical and physical conditions, traffic volumes, average speeds and average accident rates at around black spots are considered as effective factors on occurrence of accidents. Entropy values are calculated using these parameters. Safety levels are classified as five groups based on calculated entropy values. Traffic accident data for three years (2004-2006) are used in development and testing the model. Validation of entropy approach is tested by Chi-Square and truth value methods, and encouraging results are obtained. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.