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https://hdl.handle.net/11499/6723
Title: | Regional flood frequency analysis using L moments for the buyuk and kucuk menderes river basins of Turkey | Authors: | Saf, Betül | Keywords: | Catchments Flood frequency Floods Monte Carlo method Probability River basins Turkey Annual maxima Catchment area Extreme value distributions Frequency distributions General extreme values Goodness-of-fit statistics Kappa distribution L-moments Mann-Kendall Mann-Kendall test Monte Carlo Simulation Natural flow Observed data Regional analysis Regional flood frequency analysis Return periods Root mean square errors Trend analysis Ungauged catchment Flood control Monte Carlo methods Normal distribution Rain Regional planning Rivers Runoff Stream flow Watersheds Frequency estimation catchment computer simulation data processing flood forecasting flood frequency gauge Monte Carlo analysis observational method probability river basin streamflow testing method Eurasia Menderes Basin |
Abstract: | The main goal of this study was to determine regional probability distributions for the annual maximum flood data observed at 45 streamflow gauging sites in the Kucuk and Buyuk River Basins in Turkey using index flood L moments. Mann-Kendall trend analysis was previously applied to the streamflow gauging sites's observed data, and dam effects were sought at all stations. Seven sites were omitted from the analysis because they were not unregulated or trends were present in the data. A regional analysis was performed on the remaining 36 sites, which satisfied the screening criteria of having a minimum record length of 10years, representing unregulated natural flows, and passing the Mann-Kendall test at the 5% significance level. Data from the 36 streamflow gauging sites in the basins were screened using the discordancy measure (Di). Homogeneity of the region was then tested using the L-moments heterogeneity measure by carrying out 500 simulations using the four parameter kappa distribution. Based on these tests, the streamflow gauging sites were found to constitute two homogeneous subregions, namely the upper- and lower-Menderes subregions. Seven comparative regional flood frequency analysis studies were carried out for each subregion using various L-moment-based frequency distributions: the generalized logistic, general extreme value, generalized normal, Pearson Type III, generalized Pareto, kappa, and the five-parameter Wakeby. Based on the L-moment goodness of fit statistic criterion, the generalized normal extreme value distribution has been identified as the best-fit distribution for the upper- and lower-Menderes subregions. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the results on the basis of the relative root mean square error relative bias. For estimation of floods of various return periods for ungauged catchments, a regional relationship between mean annual peak flood and catchment area was developed and coupled with the regional flood frequency relationship derived for gauged catchments. © ASCE 2009. | URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/11499/6723 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000055 |
ISSN: | 1084-0699 |
Appears in Collections: | Mühendislik Fakültesi Koleksiyonu Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection |
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