Application of genetic algorithm (GA) technique on demand estimation of fossil fuels in Turkey [Article]

Abstract

The main objective is to investigate Turkey's fossil fuels demand, projection and supplies by using the structure of the Turkish industry and economic conditions. This study develops scenarios to analyze fossil fuels consumption and makes future projections based on a genetic algorithm (GA). The models developed in the nonlinear form are applied to the coal, oil and natural gas demand of Turkey. Genetic algorithm demand estimation models (GA-DEM) are developed to estimate the future coal, oil and natural gas demand values based on population, gross national product, import and export figures. It may be concluded that the proposed models can be used as alternative solutions and estimation techniques for the future fossil fuel utilization values of any country. In the study, coal, oil and natural gas consumption of Turkey are projected. Turkish fossil fuel demand is increased dramatically. Especially, coal, oil and natural gas consumption values are estimated to increase almost 2.82, 1.73 and 4.83 times between 2000 and 2020. In the figures GA-DEM results are compared with World Energy Council Turkish National Committee (WECTNC) projections. The observed results indicate that WECTNC overestimates the fossil fuel consumptions. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.