Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the behavior of international commodity prices within the context of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. To this end, I utilize a panel unit root approach which is able to account for multiple structural breaks and cross-section dependency. The unit root analysis for 24 international commodity prices during the period 1900-2003 shows evidence in favor of the trend stationary process in the commodity prices. The results thereby imply that shocks to commodity prices are temporary in nature and tend to be corrected over time. The estimation of the trend stationary models indicates that the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis is not a universal phenomenon. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.