Supporting students' understanding of probability through modeling chance events

Abstract

This paper describes how seventh grade students use the new modeling features of TinkerPlots software to build a model of typical chance events and make connections between theoretical probability and empirical probability. Similar to the findings in the literature, students initially tend to make predictions about probabilities based on small samples. Understanding of the law of large numbers does not seem to be an intuitive idea. However, dynamic and visual aspects of the software help students develop these ideas informally.