Estimating petroleum exergy production and consumption using vehicle ownership and GDP based on genetic algorithm approach

Abstract

This study deals with exergy estimation of petroleum using genetic algorithm (GA) approach. The exergy estimation is carried out based on the gross domestic product (GDP) and the percentage of vehicle ownership figures in Turkey. Genetic Algorithm EXergy Production and Consumption (GAPEX) is developed. During the estimation of petroleum exergy, the GA is combined with time-series approach. For exergy consumption, three forms of the GAPEX are developed, of which one is linear, the second is exponential and the third is quadratic form of the equations. Among them, the best fit models in terms of average relative errors for the testing period are selected for future estimation. It may be concluded that the models proposed here can be used as an alternative solution and estimation techniques for available estimation techniques. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.