A novel method to forecast nitrate concentration levels in irrigation areas for sustainable agriculture

Abstract

This study developed an ANN-based model to predict nitrate concentrations in drainage waters using parameters that are simpler and more cost-effective to measure within the Lower Seyhan Basin, a key agricultural region in Turkey. For this purpose, daily water samples were collected from a drainage measurement station during the 2022 and 2023 water years, and nitrate concentrations were determined in the laboratory. In addition to nitrate concentrations, other parameters, such as flow rate, EC, pH, and precipitation, were also measured simultaneously. The complex relationship between measured nitrate values and other parameters, which are easier and less costly to measure, was used in two different scenarios during the training phase of the ANN-Nitrate model. After the model was trained, nitrate values were estimated for the two scenarios using only the other parameters. In Scenario I, random values from the dataset were predicted, while in Scenario II, predictions were made as a time series, and model results were compared with measured values for both scenarios. The proposed model reliably fills dataset gaps (Scenario I) and predicts nitrate values in time series (Scenario II). The proposed model, although based on an artificial neural network (ANN), also has the potential to be adapted for methods used in machine learning and artificial intelligence, such as Support Vector Machines, Decision Trees, Random Forests, and Ensemble Learning Methods.