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https://hdl.handle.net/11499/6652
Title: | Modeling and prediction of Turkey's electricity consumption using Artificial Neural Networks | Authors: | Kavaklıoğlu, Kadir. Ceylan, Halim. Öztürk, Harun Kemal. Canyurt, Olcay Ersel. |
Keywords: | Artificial Neural Networks Electricity consumption Turkey Artificial Neural Network Backpropagation training algorithm Economic indicators Gross national product Input-output Linear transfer function Multi layer perceptron Neural network topology Output layer Performance comparison Processing elements Backpropagation Backpropagation algorithms Economics Electric load forecasting Electric network topology Electric power utilization Electricity International trade Wireless sensor networks Neural networks |
Abstract: | Artificial Neural Networks are proposed to model and predict electricity consumption of Turkey. Multi layer perceptron with backpropagation training algorithm is used as the neural network topology. Tangent-sigmoid and pure-linear transfer functions are selected in the hidden and output layer processing elements, respectively. These input-output network models are a result of relationships that exist among electricity consumption and several other socioeconomic variables. Electricity consumption is modeled as a function of economic indicators such as population, gross national product, imports and exports. It is also modeled using export-import ratio and time input only. Performance comparison among different models is made based on absolute and percentage mean square error. Electricity consumption of Turkey is predicted until 2027 using data from 1975 to 2006 along with other economic indicators. The results show that electricity consumption can be modeled using Artificial Neural Networks, and the models can be used to predict future electricity consumption. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/11499/6652 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2009.06.016 |
ISSN: | 0196-8904 |
Appears in Collections: | Mühendislik Fakültesi Koleksiyonu Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection |
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