Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11499/7116
Title: Hydrological time-series modelling using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
Authors: Fırat, Mahmut
Güngör, Mahmud
Keywords: ANFIS
ANN
Fuzzy logic
Hydrological time-series
River great menderes
Artificial intelligence
Forecasting
Fuzzy inference
Fuzzy systems
Harmonic analysis
Modal analysis
Neural networks
Reusability
Signal filtering and prediction
Statistics
Water resources
Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)
Applied (CO)
Artificial neural network (ANNs)
case studies
Cross-validation methods
Data sets
high accuracy
In order
Input/output (I/O) data
Sustainable use
Time Series
Time series forecasting
Training and testing
Time series analysis
artificial neural network
basin analysis
forecasting method
fuzzy mathematics
hydrological modeling
input-output analysis
numerical model
performance assessment
time series analysis
Eurasia
Menderes Basin
Turkey
Abstract: Accurate forecasting of hydrological time-series is a quite important issue for a wise and sustainable use of water resources. In this study, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach is used to construct a time-series forecasting system. In particular, the applicability of an ANFIS to the forecasting of the time-series is investigated. To illustrate the applicability and capability of an ANFIS, the River Great Menderes, located in western Turkey, is chosen as a case study area. The advantage of this method is that it uses the input-output data sets. A total of 5844 daily data sets collected from 1985 to 2000 are used for the time-series forecasting. Models having various input structures were constructed and the best structure was investigated. In addition, four various training/testing data sets were built by cross-validation methods and the best data set was obtained. The performance of the ANFIS models in training and testing sets was compared with observations and also evaluated. In order to get an accurate and reliable comparison, the best-fit model structure was also trained and tested by artificial neural networks and traditional time-series analysis techniques and the results compared. The results indicate that the ANFIS can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for time-series modelling. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/11499/7116
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6812
ISSN: 0885-6087
Appears in Collections:Mühendislik Fakültesi Koleksiyonu
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection

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